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(2023-07-11 07:52)

Rolling Immunity

Rolling immunity (in terms of this page) is a collective immunity metric based on factual uses cases (counted using deaths) and vaccination shots timeline and the fact that individual immunity decreases over time. This page is about finding relations with pandemic outbreaks and the rolling immunity concept.

Examples

To showcase the idea of rolling immunity, we use 5 countries having different vaccination timeframes. The Israel use case might be showing that having too fast of a vaccination campaign leads to outbreaks due to low levels of rolling immunity. This USA case might be showing that the vaccination level wasn't enough.

Israel

USA

UK

Germany

Brasil

Locations

Explore charts for other countries and share what you think. Take into account that this methodology is very approximate as the numbers depend on the healthcare and vaccines efficacy in the exact country. This table uses 7 day moving averages for deaths and cases:

Location Immunity Deaths/1M Cases/1M
Afghanistan 0.0 0.0 0.285
Africa 0.02 0.0 0.018
Albania 0.0 0.0 0.0
Algeria 0.0 0.0 0.0
Angola 0.0 0.0 0.0
Argentina 0.01
Armenia 0.0 0.0 0.617
Asia 0.01
Australia 0.01
Austria 0.0 0.0 4.922
Azerbaijan 0.0 0.014 0.166
Bahrain 0.0 0.0 0.0
Bangladesh 0.01
Belarus 0.0 0.0 0.0
Belgium 0.0 0.0 0.294
Benin 0.0 0.0 0.0
Bolivia 0.0 0.0 0.0
Bosnia and Herzegovina 0.0 0.0 0.0
Botswana 0.0 0.0 0.0
Brazil 0.0
Bulgaria 0.0
Burkina Faso 0.0 0.0 0.0
Burundi 0.0 0.0 0.0
Cambodia 0.0 0.0 0.187
Cameroon 0.0 0.0 0.0
Canada 0.0 0.0 0.0
Central African Republic 0.0 0.0 0.0
Chad 0.0 0.0 0.0
Chile 0.0
China 0.0
Colombia 0.0
Congo 0.0 0.0 0.0
Costa Rica 0.0 0.0 0.0
Cote d'Ivoire 0.0 0.0 0.0
Croatia 0.01 0.071 0.815
Cuba 0.08
Czechia 0.0
Democratic Republic of Congo 0.0 0.0 0.0
Denmark 0.01 0.17 1.433
Djibouti 0.0 0.0 0.0
Dominican Republic 0.0 0.0 0.0
Ecuador 0.0 0.0 0.0
Egypt 0.0 0.0 0.0
El Salvador 0.0 0.0 0.0
England 0.0
Equatorial Guinea 0.0 0.0 0.0
Eritrea 0.0 0.0 0.0
Estonia 0.01 0.0 0.0
Eswatini 0.0 0.0 0.0
Ethiopia 0.0 0.0 0.0
Europe 0.01
European Union 0.0
Finland 0.01 0.0 1.624
France 0.0 0.0 0.0
Gabon 0.0 0.0 0.0
Gambia 0.0 0.0 0.0
Georgia 0.0 0.0 0.0
Germany 0.0 0.0 0.0
Ghana 0.0 0.0 0.0
Greece 0.01
Guatemala 0.0 0.0 0.0
Guinea 0.0 0.0 0.0
Guinea-Bissau 0.0 0.0 0.0
Haiti 0.0 0.0 0.0
High income 0.01
Honduras 0.0 0.0 0.0
Hong Kong 0.02
Hungary 0.0 0.0 0.0
India 0.0
Indonesia 0.0 0.005 0.094
Iran 0.0 0.008 0.198
Iraq 0.0 0.0 0.0
Ireland 0.01 0.142 1.109
Israel 0.0 0.015 3.901
Italy 0.0
Jamaica 0.0 0.0 0.0
Japan 0.01 0.0 0.0
Jordan 0.0 0.0 0.0
Kazakhstan 0.0 0.0 0.0
Kenya 0.0 0.0 0.087
Kosovo 0.0 0.0 0.24
Kuwait 0.0 0.0 0.268
Kyrgyzstan 0.02
Laos 0.0 0.0 0.797
Latvia 0.01 0.0 0.0
Lebanon 0.0 0.0 0.0
Lesotho 0.0 0.0 0.0
Liberia 0.0 0.0 0.0
Libya 0.0 0.0 0.0
Lithuania 0.0
Low income 0.04 0.0 0.022
Lower middle income 0.01
Madagascar 0.0 0.0 0.0
Malawi 0.0 0.0 0.217
Malaysia 0.0
Mali 0.0 0.0 0.0
Mauritania 0.0 0.0 0.0
Mauritius 0.0 0.0 0.0
Mexico 0.0 0.0 0.017
Moldova 0.0 0.0 0.0
Mongolia 0.0 0.0 0.0
Morocco 0.0 0.0 0.122
Mozambique 0.0 0.0 0.0
Myanmar 0.0 0.0 0.425
Namibia 0.0 0.0 0.0
Nepal 0.0 0.0 0.009
Netherlands 0.0
New Zealand 0.02
Nicaragua 0.0 0.0 0.0
Niger 0.0 0.0 0.0
Nigeria 0.0 0.0 0.0
North America 0.01
North Korea 0.0 0.0 0.0
North Macedonia 0.0 0.0 0.0
Northern Ireland 0.04
Norway 0.0 0.0
Oceania 0.02 0.929 38.161
Oman 0.0 0.0 0.0
Pakistan 0.0 0.0 0.0
Palestine 0.0 0.0 0.0
Panama 0.0 0.0 0.0
Papua New Guinea 0.0 0.0 0.0
Paraguay 0.0 0.0 0.0
Peru 0.04
Philippines 0.0 0.001
Poland 0.0
Portugal 0.0 0.0 0.0
Puerto Rico 0.0 0.0 0.0
Qatar 0.0 0.0 0.0
Romania 0.0 0.0 0.0
Russia 0.0
Rwanda 0.0 0.0 0.0
Saudi Arabia 0.0 0.0 0.0
Scotland 0.0
Senegal 0.0 0.0 0.0
Serbia 0.0 0.0
Sierra Leone 0.0 0.0 0.0
Singapore 0.0 0.0 0.0
Slovakia 0.0 0.0 0.0
Slovenia 0.01 0.0 0.0
Somalia 0.0 0.0 0.0
South Africa 0.0 0.0 0.0
South America 0.01
South Korea 0.0
South Sudan 0.0 0.0 0.0
Spain 0.0 0.0 0.0
Sri Lanka 0.0 0.0 0.033
Sudan 0.0 0.0 0.0
Sweden 0.01
Switzerland 0.0 0.0 0.0
Syria 0.0 0.0 0.0
Taiwan 0.01
Tajikistan 0.0 0.0 0.0
Tanzania 0.0 0.0 0.0
Thailand 0.0
Timor 0.0 0.0 0.0
Togo 0.0 0.0 0.032
Trinidad and Tobago 0.0 0.0 0.0
Tunisia 0.0 0.0 0.0
Turkey 0.0 0.0 0.0
Turkmenistan 0.0 0.0 0.0
Uganda 0.0 0.0 0.0
Ukraine 0.0 0.0 0.0
United Arab Emirates 0.0 0.0 0.0
United Kingdom 0.01 0.0
United States 0.01 0.0 0.0
Upper middle income 0.0
Uruguay 0.0
Uzbekistan 0.0 0.0 0.0
Venezuela 0.0 0.0 0.0
Vietnam 0.0 0.0 0.522
Wales 0.0
World 0.01
Yemen 0.0 0.0 0.0
Zambia 0.0 0.0 0.0
Zimbabwe 0.0 0.018 0.7
Location Immunity Deaths/1M Cases/1M

Methodology

We use oversimplified rolling immunity formula for a date. We use deaths instead of use cases to overcome the problem of inaccurate use cases reporting. The exact ratio is configurable; we use 1 death for 100 use cases based on known death rate for now around 50 use cases per a death and estimating unreported use cases as 50 use cases per 1 death:

rolling_immunity_for_a_date = (estimated_new_cases + new_vaccinations) / population
estimated_new_cases = new_deaths * 100

We count one case to be equal to one vaccination shot. For the model we use the decreasing ration (180 - days)/180 meaning that you will lose all the immunity you had acquired in 180 days. Again, this parameter is configurable and might be changed in other models.

rolling_immunity_for_a_date = 100%
rolling_immunity_for_a_date_in_180_days = 0%

Please take a look at the full algorithm.