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(2023-03-21 06:10)

Rolling Immunity

Rolling immunity (in terms of this page) is a collective immunity metric based on factual uses cases (counted using deaths) and vaccination shots timeline and the fact that individual immunity decreases over time. This page is about finding relations with pandemic outbreaks and the rolling immunity concept.

Examples

To showcase the idea of rolling immunity, we use 5 countries having different vaccination timeframes. The Israel use case might be showing that having too fast of a vaccination campaign leads to outbreaks due to low levels of rolling immunity. This USA case might be showing that the vaccination level wasn't enough.

Israel

USA

UK

Germany

Brasil

Locations

Explore charts for other countries and share what you think. Take into account that this methodology is very approximate as the numbers depend on the healthcare and vaccines efficacy in the exact country. This table uses 7 day moving averages for deaths and cases:

Location Immunity Deaths/1M Cases/1M
Afghanistan 0.0 0.007 0.556
Africa 0.04 0.001 0.329
Albania 0.0 0.05 1.508
Algeria 0.0 0.0 0.089
Angola 0.0 0.0 0.04
Argentina 0.06
Armenia 0.0 0.0 0.0
Asia 0.03
Australia 0.01 0.0 0.0
Austria 0.01
Azerbaijan 0.0 0.124 2.648
Bahrain 0.0 0.0 0.0
Bangladesh 0.05 0.0 0.045
Belarus 0.0 0.0 0.0
Belgium 0.04 0.0 0.123
Benin 0.0 0.0 0.0
Bolivia 0.0 0.023 5.843
Bosnia and Herzegovina 0.0 0.353 3.976
Botswana 0.0 0.0 0.0
Brazil 0.03
Bulgaria 0.01
Burkina Faso 0.0 0.0 0.0
Burundi 0.0 0.0 0.0
Cambodia 0.0 0.0 0.009
Cameroon 0.0 0.0 0.0
Canada 0.06
Central African Republic 0.0 0.0 0.0
Chad 0.0 0.0 0.024
Chile 0.01
China 0.02
Colombia 0.0
Congo 0.0 0.0 0.263
Costa Rica 0.0
Cote d'Ivoire 0.0 0.0 0.112
Croatia 0.02
Cuba 0.06
Czechia 0.02
Democratic Republic of Congo 0.0 0.0 0.0
Denmark 0.01
Djibouti 0.0 0.0 0.0
Dominican Republic 0.0 0.0 0.0
Ecuador 0.0 0.0 0.0
Egypt 0.0 0.004 0.042
El Salvador 0.0 0.0 0.0
England 0.06
Equatorial Guinea 0.0 0.0 0.0
Eritrea 0.0 0.0 0.0
Estonia 0.03 0.323 20.684
Eswatini 0.0 0.0 6.657
Ethiopia 0.0 0.0 0.078
Europe 0.03
European Union 0.03
Finland 0.02 0.0 0.361
France 0.03
Gabon 0.0 0.0 0.0
Gambia 0.0 0.0 0.0
Georgia 0.0 0.0 0.0
Germany 0.03
Ghana 0.0 0.0 0.0
Greece 0.04
Guatemala 0.0 0.016 9.295
Guinea 0.0 0.0 0.0
Guinea-Bissau 0.0 0.0 0.0
Haiti 0.0 0.0 0.0
High income 0.06
Honduras 0.0 0.0 0.096
Hong Kong 0.09
Hungary 0.0 0.0 0.0
India 0.01
Indonesia 0.0 0.008
Iran 0.0
Iraq 0.0 0.0 0.0
Ireland 0.01 0.0 0.0
Israel 0.02
Italy 0.03
Jamaica 0.0 0.0 0.0
Japan 0.22
Jordan 0.0 0.0 0.0
Kazakhstan 0.0 0.0
Kenya 0.0 0.0 0.013
Kosovo 0.0 0.0 12.345
Kuwait 0.0 0.0
Kyrgyzstan 0.01
Laos 0.0 0.0 0.0
Latvia 0.01 0.309 11.347
Lebanon 0.0 0.156 15.796
Lesotho 0.0 0.0 0.0
Liberia 0.0 0.0 0.0
Libya 0.0 0.0 0.294
Lithuania 0.01
Low income 0.04 0.002 0.085
Lower middle income 0.03
Madagascar 0.0 0.0 0.251
Malawi 0.0 0.0 0.021
Malaysia 0.01
Mali 0.0 0.0 0.038
Mauritania 0.0 0.0 0.0
Mauritius 0.0 0.0 0.0
Mexico 0.0 0.029
Moldova 0.0
Mongolia 0.0 0.0 0.084
Morocco 0.0 0.0 0.137
Mozambique 0.0 0.0 0.0
Myanmar 0.0 0.0 0.045
Namibia 0.0 0.0 0.0
Nepal 0.0 0.0 0.084
Netherlands 0.0
New Zealand 0.02
Nicaragua 0.0 0.0 0.308
Niger 0.0 0.0 0.0
Nigeria 0.0 0.0 0.008
North America 0.05
North Korea 0.0 0.0 0.0
North Macedonia 0.0 0.0 0.0
Northern Ireland 0.08
Norway 0.02 0.0 6.467
Oceania 0.02 0.038 32.359
Oman 0.0 0.0 0.0
Pakistan 0.0 0.001 0.276
Palestine 0.0 0.0 0.0
Panama 0.0 0.065
Papua New Guinea 0.0 0.0 0.0
Paraguay 0.0 0.042 1.053
Peru 0.06
Philippines 0.0 0.062
Poland 0.01
Portugal 0.01 0.306
Puerto Rico 0.01 0.483
Qatar 0.0 0.0
Romania 0.0
Russia 0.0
Rwanda 0.0 0.0 0.0
Saudi Arabia 0.0 0.016
Scotland 0.0
Senegal 0.0 0.0 0.058
Serbia 0.01
Sierra Leone 0.0 0.0 0.0
Singapore 0.0 0.0
Slovakia 0.01 0.354
Slovenia 0.02 0.067
Somalia 0.0 0.0 0.0
South Africa 0.0 0.0
South America 0.03
South Korea 0.01
South Sudan 0.0 0.0 0.0
Spain 0.0
Sri Lanka 0.0 0.007 0.065
Sudan 0.0 0.018 0.073
Sweden 0.02
Switzerland 0.03 0.049
Syria 0.0 0.0 0.0
Taiwan 0.05
Tajikistan 0.0 0.0 0.0
Tanzania 0.0 0.0 0.046
Thailand 0.0 0.012
Timor 0.0 0.0 0.0
Togo 0.0 0.0 0.113
Trinidad and Tobago 0.01 0.0 0.0
Tunisia 0.0 0.046
Turkey 0.0 0.0 0.0
Turkmenistan 0.0 0.0 0.0
Uganda 0.0 0.0 0.0
Ukraine 0.0
United Arab Emirates 0.0 0.0
United Kingdom 0.01 0.002
United States 0.06
Upper middle income 0.02
Uruguay 0.05
Uzbekistan 0.0 0.0 0.507
Venezuela 0.0 0.0 0.268
Vietnam 0.0 0.0 0.087
Wales 0.09
World 0.03
Yemen 0.0 0.0 0.0
Zambia 0.0 0.0
Zimbabwe 0.0 0.0 0.516
Location Immunity Deaths/1M Cases/1M

Methodology

We use oversimplified rolling immunity formula for a date. We use deaths instead of use cases to overcome the problem of inaccurate use cases reporting. The exact ratio is configurable; we use 1 death for 100 use cases based on known death rate for now around 50 use cases per a death and estimating unreported use cases as 50 use cases per 1 death:

rolling_immunity_for_a_date = (estimated_new_cases + new_vaccinations) / population
estimated_new_cases = new_deaths * 100

We count one case to be equal to one vaccination shot. For the model we use the decreasing ration (180 - days)/180 meaning that you will lose all the immunity you had acquired in 180 days. Again, this parameter is configurable and might be changed in other models.

rolling_immunity_for_a_date = 100%
rolling_immunity_for_a_date_in_180_days = 0%

Please take a look at the full algorithm.