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(2023-06-05 06:10)

Rolling Immunity

Rolling immunity (in terms of this page) is a collective immunity metric based on factual uses cases (counted using deaths) and vaccination shots timeline and the fact that individual immunity decreases over time. This page is about finding relations with pandemic outbreaks and the rolling immunity concept.

Examples

To showcase the idea of rolling immunity, we use 5 countries having different vaccination timeframes. The Israel use case might be showing that having too fast of a vaccination campaign leads to outbreaks due to low levels of rolling immunity. This USA case might be showing that the vaccination level wasn't enough.

Israel

USA

UK

Germany

Brasil

Locations

Explore charts for other countries and share what you think. Take into account that this methodology is very approximate as the numbers depend on the healthcare and vaccines efficacy in the exact country. This table uses 7 day moving averages for deaths and cases:

Location Immunity Deaths/1M Cases/1M
Afghanistan 0.0 0.0
Africa 0.02 0.001 0.015
Albania 0.0 0.0 0.0
Algeria 0.0 0.0 0.041
Angola 0.0 0.0 0.0
Argentina 0.03
Armenia 0.0 0.0 0.565
Asia 0.01
Australia 0.01
Austria 0.0
Azerbaijan 0.0 0.0 1.021
Bahrain 0.0 0.0 0.0
Bangladesh 0.01
Belarus 0.0 0.0 0.0
Belgium 0.01 0.0 1.017
Benin 0.0 0.0 0.0
Bolivia 0.0 0.012
Bosnia and Herzegovina 0.0 0.044 0.795
Botswana 0.0 0.0 0.0
Brazil 0.01
Bulgaria 0.0
Burkina Faso 0.0 0.0 0.0
Burundi 0.0 0.0 0.0
Cambodia 0.0 0.0 0.222
Cameroon 0.0 0.0 0.0
Canada 0.01
Central African Republic 0.0 0.0 0.0
Chad 0.0 0.0 0.0
Chile 0.01
China 0.01
Colombia 0.0 0.019
Congo 0.0 0.0 0.0
Costa Rica 0.0 0.028
Cote d'Ivoire 0.0 0.0 0.0
Croatia 0.01 0.319
Cuba 0.07
Czechia 0.0
Democratic Republic of Congo 0.0 0.0 0.0
Denmark 0.01
Djibouti 0.0 0.0 0.0
Dominican Republic 0.0 0.0 0.0
Ecuador 0.0 0.0 0.0
Egypt 0.0 0.0 0.0
El Salvador 0.0 0.0 0.0
England 0.01
Equatorial Guinea 0.0 0.0 0.0
Eritrea 0.0 0.0 0.0
Estonia 0.01 0.0 13.143
Eswatini 0.0 0.0 0.0
Ethiopia 0.0 0.0 0.015
Europe 0.01
European Union 0.01
Finland 0.01 0.0 3.3
France 0.01
Gabon 0.0 0.0 0.0
Gambia 0.0 0.0 0.0
Georgia 0.0 0.0 0.0
Germany 0.01
Ghana 0.0 0.0 0.0
Greece 0.01
Guatemala 0.0 0.008
Guinea 0.0 0.0 0.0
Guinea-Bissau 0.0 0.0 0.0
Haiti 0.0 0.0 0.049
High income 0.02
Honduras 0.0 0.0 0.0
Hong Kong 0.03
Hungary 0.0 0.0 0.0
India 0.0
Indonesia 0.0 0.024
Iran 0.0 0.013
Iraq 0.0 0.0 0.0
Ireland 0.01 2.787
Israel 0.0 0.0 4.883
Italy 0.01
Jamaica 0.0 0.202 2.779
Japan 0.05 0.0 0.0
Jordan 0.0 0.0 0.0
Kazakhstan 0.0 0.0 0.0
Kenya 0.0 0.0 0.0
Kosovo 0.0 0.08 0.721
Kuwait 0.0 0.0 0.736
Kyrgyzstan 0.01
Laos 0.0 0.0 0.171
Latvia 0.01 0.0 0.0
Lebanon 0.0 0.0 0.0
Lesotho 0.0 0.0 0.0
Liberia 0.0 0.0 0.0
Libya 0.0 0.0 0.0
Lithuania 0.0
Low income 0.03 0.0 0.134
Lower middle income 0.01
Madagascar 0.0 0.005 0.034
Malawi 0.0 0.0 0.091
Malaysia 0.0
Mali 0.0 0.0 0.0
Mauritania 0.0 0.0 0.0
Mauritius 0.0 0.0 0.0
Mexico 0.0
Moldova 0.0 0.0 0.0
Mongolia 0.0 0.0 0.0
Morocco 0.0 0.0 0.0
Mozambique 0.0 0.0 0.0
Myanmar 0.0 0.0 1.363
Namibia 0.0 0.0 0.0
Nepal 0.0 0.0 0.089
Netherlands 0.0
New Zealand 0.02
Nicaragua 0.0 0.0 0.185
Niger 0.0 0.0 0.0
Nigeria 0.0 0.0 0.0
North America 0.02
North Korea 0.0 0.0 0.0
North Macedonia 0.0 0.0 0.0
Northern Ireland 0.05
Norway 0.01 0.0 3.68
Oceania 0.03 0.155 36.134
Oman 0.0 0.0 0.0
Pakistan 0.0 0.0 0.0
Palestine 0.0 0.0 0.0
Panama 0.0 0.0 0.0
Papua New Guinea 0.0 0.0 0.0
Paraguay 0.0 0.0 0.0
Peru 0.05
Philippines 0.0 0.0
Poland 0.0
Portugal 0.01 0.417
Puerto Rico 0.01 0.0
Qatar 0.0 0.0
Romania 0.0
Russia 0.0 0.0 0.0
Rwanda 0.0 0.0 0.0
Saudi Arabia 0.0 0.0 0.0
Scotland 0.0
Senegal 0.0 0.0 0.0
Serbia 0.0
Sierra Leone 0.0 0.0 0.0
Singapore 0.0 0.0 0.0
Slovakia 0.0 0.0 1.088
Slovenia 0.01 0.0 0.0
Somalia 0.0 0.0 0.0
South Africa 0.0 0.0 0.0
South America 0.01
South Korea 0.0 0.096
South Sudan 0.0 0.0 0.0
Spain 0.0 0.0 0.0
Sri Lanka 0.0 0.02 0.366
Sudan 0.0 0.0 0.0
Sweden 0.01
Switzerland 0.0 0.0 0.0
Syria 0.0 0.0 0.0
Taiwan 0.03
Tajikistan 0.0 0.0 0.0
Tanzania 0.0 0.0 0.0
Thailand 0.0 0.0 0.0
Timor 0.0 0.0 0.533
Togo 0.0 0.0 0.032
Trinidad and Tobago 0.0 0.0 0.0
Tunisia 0.0 0.0 0.0
Turkey 0.0 0.0 0.0
Turkmenistan 0.0 0.0 0.0
Uganda 0.0 0.0 0.0
Ukraine 0.0 0.0 0.0
United Arab Emirates 0.0 0.0
United Kingdom 0.01 0.0
United States 0.02
Upper middle income 0.01
Uruguay 0.01
Uzbekistan 0.0 0.0 0.0
Venezuela 0.0 0.0 0.0
Vietnam 0.0 0.001
Wales 0.01
World 0.01
Yemen 0.0 0.0 0.0
Zambia 0.0 0.0 0.0
Zimbabwe 0.0 0.035 0.543
Location Immunity Deaths/1M Cases/1M

Methodology

We use oversimplified rolling immunity formula for a date. We use deaths instead of use cases to overcome the problem of inaccurate use cases reporting. The exact ratio is configurable; we use 1 death for 100 use cases based on known death rate for now around 50 use cases per a death and estimating unreported use cases as 50 use cases per 1 death:

rolling_immunity_for_a_date = (estimated_new_cases + new_vaccinations) / population
estimated_new_cases = new_deaths * 100

We count one case to be equal to one vaccination shot. For the model we use the decreasing ration (180 - days)/180 meaning that you will lose all the immunity you had acquired in 180 days. Again, this parameter is configurable and might be changed in other models.

rolling_immunity_for_a_date = 100%
rolling_immunity_for_a_date_in_180_days = 0%

Please take a look at the full algorithm.